Global Warming: What's The Big Deal?

Bob and Jane Miller from Nashville, Illinois want to know more about global warming:

Dear Steve,

What is going on with global warming? Is it still happening and are we doing anything about it? Is global warming even still a concern?

Well Bob and Jane, There’s a good reason why global warming is a hot topic, but there is also a good reason why it seems there is nothing being done to prevent global warming. Actually, there is a lot being done, but nothing that is interesting enough to make the Ten o'clock news. This web page will concern itself with just why there is no massive global or national effort to curb global warming.

However, if you would like to familiarize yourself with the topic of global warming more in depth, visit the WeatherSavvy Issue On Global Warming. This site details the processes of the greenhouse effect, what greenhouse gases are, and the arguments concerning global warming.

Let’s talk about the facts first...

The facts:

- Global warming is happening.

- Global Warming has occurred over the past 120 years, and has been especially rapid in the last 20 years. We know this from surface temperature observations.

- Carbon Dioxide as well as other greenhouse gases cause a warming in the atmosphere.

- Carbon Dioxide has increased dramatically in the last 120 years, and is at its highest level taking into consideration ice core samples, which include a 400,000 year period.

- Humans are overwhelmingly responsible for the dramatic increase in Carbon Dioxide and other greenhouse gases. They’re emitted from our consumption of common fuel sources for energy, like fossil fuels.

Ok, it seems pretty simple…humans put stuff in the air that warms the air, and voila! Global warming! Nothing is that simple, especially when it concerns such complex systems as the Earth and its atmosphere.

So the reason why it seems nothing is being done about global warming is because we are still trying to answer some vital questions. And this is the big reason why it seems there is nothing being done about the issue, because there is a lot we still don't understand.

There are two main questions that must be conclusively answered before we can even truly understand how to approach the global warming issue. So let's talk about those two questions...

1) What portion of global warming can be attributed to increased greenhouse gases due to human activities?

It’s uncertain. Greenhouse gases have dramatically increased in the past 120 years, and most definitely due to human activities. But how this impacts a climate system we know so little about is uncertain. For example, couldn’t this warming be natural? Global temperatures are thought to have differed over ice ages by as much as 18 degrees F, so 1.5 degrees F could very well be mostly a natural process. Because of the natural variability in our climate system and our inability to piece together a "climate timeline"over centuries with no weather records, we can't make a quantitative assertion as to the portion of global warming attributed to anthropogenic contributions or to the natural variability of Earth's climate.

This is a key question to answer, because it might mean that humans are the main cause. Although it is uncertain at the moment, many scientists hypothesize that humans ARE the main cause. If this is the case, then I'd like to think that with science and research, we can find a way to mitigate or all together end the portion of global warming from human activities. If the answers is that humans have very little impact on global warming, well then there might not be a lot for us to do except let the natural evolution of the Earth take place and try to adapt.

Bottom line: Too uncertain to give you anything better than an educates guess. I'll take an educated guess on a $1.00 bet if it will rain tomorrow, but I don't think an educated guess is good enough when the consequences impact a global market like natural gas extraction and fossil fuel plants. Just remember that a changeover to an alternative fuel source will not be as easy as switching from VHS to DVD.

Another question....

2) If computer models predicting the impact of accelerated global warming indicates a future of intense storms, drought in some areas, melting ice caps, rising sea level etc…shouldn’t we do something?

Yes we should do something, first of all we should calm down. I have seen many misleading documentaries and news reports that warn the end of the world due to global warming and then, inconclusively, link global warming to human activity.

Let’s look at the source of the predications. Computer models. Let’s take out the word computer, because it makes me think that no person is involved. So we are down to models. Models are equations created by humans that try to simulate our climate. If we can’t simulate our daily weather accurately past say three days, how can we accurately predict global temperatures in 100, 1000, 10,000 years? Once again, we come up with uncertainties.

A major contributing factor (about 60%) to the predictions is something called "feedback". Feedback, in our case, is basically how other variables change as the concentration of greenhouse gases change. If you warm the air, you increase evaporation. Thus, you change relative humidity and you change type and amount of cloud cover. How will this change affect the warming? Will the cloud cover block out more solar radiation thus cooling earth? Our understanding of the climate system is not advanced enough to know all of the feedback possibilities.

What does this leave us with? Uncertainty in the model predications. One other significant uncertainty is how will greenhouse gas concentrations change in the future? Changes due both from natural processes and by possible human reduction in emissions? Uncertain, but a big player in the model predictions.

In my opinion, the only thing that is certain, is uncertainty itself, at least when it comes to model predictions. In fact, if you could sum up THE issue in the science concerning global warming in one word it would be: uncertainty.

If you still aren't sure why it seems nothing is being about global warming, put yourself in the shoes of the President or any policymaker. Your cabinet members summarize the issues for you below...

And now I ask you…"What’s your policy on global warming?" What would you say?

When questioned by reporters about global warming, here is what President George W. Bush's press secretary, Ari Fleischer, had to say.

"The President has always said global warming is a serious problem, it is a serious priority. That's widely acknowledged. The President concurs. But the National Academy Report that came out last month also indicated that there are areas of uncertainty. There are some things that are known, but there are other things that aren't certain..."

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/07/20010713-5.html

Actually, a lot is being done, but you can' find a solution until you know what is causing the problem. So a lot is being done to investigate what is causing global warming and how will it truly affect our planet?

This means for a lot of research into perfecting our models, perfecting our understanding of the atmosphere, the climate system, the sensitivities of the climate system, and perfecting our observation and data gathering methods. This stuff is pretty boring and that's why it's not on the Ten O'clock news.